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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 33

San Francisco 49ers 24 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(6:17) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to TEN 31 for 2 yards (93-T.Sweat; 98-J.Simmons).

The Three Options

GO +2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.83 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 43, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model