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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 35

Minnesota Vikings 31 – Dallas Cowboys 23

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 16-W.Reichard 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +1.60 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 35, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 45, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model