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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 45

Dallas Cowboys 23 – Minnesota Vikings 31

What Actually Happened

(5:35) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 43-M.Davis to MIN 39 for 6 yards (55-E.Wilson). MIN-58-J.Greenard was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.11 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 45, worth -2.10 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model