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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 41

Dallas Cowboys 23 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(12:24) 17-B.Aubrey 59 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.73 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 41, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • 60% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model