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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 19

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(:08) 17-B.Aubrey 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +3.20 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 19, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 29, worth -0.05 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model