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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 29

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(12:41) (Field Goal formation) 17-B.Aubrey right end to MIN 23 for 6 yards (0-I.Pace).

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.61 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 29, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
  • 84% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 39, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model