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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 11

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 16-W.Reichard 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.41 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 22, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model