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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 53

Pittsburgh Steelers 28 – Miami Dolphins 15

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 3-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to MIA 3, impetus ends at MIA 1, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-26-B.Echols.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +1.39 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 53, worth -1.25 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 15, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model