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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 71

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(10:26) 3-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to MIA 22, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 6-M.Washington to MIA 29 for 7 yards (15-B.Skowronek; 33-J.Sawyer).

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.72 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 71, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 29, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP