Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 18 at the 68

Miami Dolphins 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(9:16) 16-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to PIT 15, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-C.Austin to PIT 23 for 8 yards (49-J.Cardona). ** Injury Update: MIA-31-O.Gordon has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.74 EP
73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model