Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 71

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

(8:44) 3-C.Waitman punts 40 yards to MIA 31, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-22-A.Samuel.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.21 EP
65% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 71, worth -4.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model