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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 33

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(1:19) (Shotgun) 15-K.Pickett pass incomplete short right to 17-T.Lockett (50-J.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.05 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 33, worth -1.86 EP
KICK +0.02 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 43, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model