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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 1

Philadelphia Eagles 31 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 37-T.Bigsby left guard to LV 2 for -1 yards (44-T.Eichenberg).

The Three Options

GO +3.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.89 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 1, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model