Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 16 at the 74

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 31

What Actually Happened

(13:27) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to PHI 26, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 18-B.Covey to PHI 31 for 5 yards (59-J.Rhattigan; 87-M.Mayer). PENALTY on PHI-21-S.Brown, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 29.

The Three Options

GO -2.74 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.07 EP
75% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 74, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model