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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 20 at the 78

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(2:50) 6-A.Cole punts 38 yards to PHI 40, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.02 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.09 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 78, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 35, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model