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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 54

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(:36) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to PHI 10, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 18-B.Covey to PHI 21 for 11 yards (29-C.Anusiem; 44-T.Eichenberg).

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.18 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 54, worth -2.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 16, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model