Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 66

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

(11:59) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to PHI 25, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.87 EP
64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 66, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model