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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 44

Los Angeles Chargers 16 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

What Actually Happened

(5:29) 16-J.Scott punts 28 yards to KC 16, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio to KC 18 for 2 yards (40-K.Williamson; 47-J.Harris). PENALTY on KC-20-N.Williams, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at KC 16.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.28 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 44, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP