4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 16 at the 60

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 16-J.Scott punts 48 yards to KC 12, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.95 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 60, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 19, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model