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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 5

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

What Actually Happened

(8:58) 11-C.Dicker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. ** Injury Update: KC-38-K.Knowles has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.44 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 5, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP