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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 14 at the 47

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(2:57) 16-J.Scott punts 35 yards to KC 12, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio. PENALTY on KC-2-J.Williams, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at KC 12.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.65 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 47, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -0.92 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 13, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model