Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 60

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Seattle Seahawks 3

(14:57) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to SEA 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 15 for 6 yards (31-T.Goodson).

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.05 EP
55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 60, worth -3.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model