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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 42

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Seattle Seahawks 15

What Actually Happened

(:52) 10-B.Grupe 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +0.79 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 42, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model