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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 12

Seattle Seahawks 12 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(2:30) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.39 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model