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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 83

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(9:05) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to IND 35, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.02 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 83, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.70 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 41, worth -1.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP