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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 42

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Seattle Seahawks 12

What Actually Happened

(8:16) 8-R.Sanchez punts 36 yards to SEA 6, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-31-T.Goodson.

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.66 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 42, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.45 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP