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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 14

Seattle Seahawks 9 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(13:28) 5-J.Myers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.53 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 14, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model