Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 54

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Seattle Seahawks 9

(8:12) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to SEA 7, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.95 EP
65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 54, worth -3.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model