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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 34

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(:05) 5-J.Myers 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.28 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 34, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 44, worth -0.20 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model