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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 20 at the 92

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Indianapolis Colts 6

What Actually Happened

(5:56) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to IND 42, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 9-C.Owen.

The Three Options

GO -3.23 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.36 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 92, worth -5.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 50, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model