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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 90

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(12:58) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to IND 47, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 9-C.Owen.

The Three Options

GO -3.02 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.31 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 90, worth -5.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 47, worth -2.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model