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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 67

New England Patriots 7 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(6:27) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to BUF 17, Center-47-J.Ashby, downed by NE-22-C.Woods.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.89 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 67, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 25, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP