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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 44

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(9:17) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 32 yards to NE 12, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.19 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 44, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.05 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP