Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 78

New England Patriots 31 – Buffalo Bills 35

(1:54) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short middle to 8-S.Diggs (97-J.Bosa).

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

What Happened

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.94 EP
50% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 78, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model