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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 65

Buffalo Bills 35 – New England Patriots 31

What Actually Happened

(2:54) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 50 yards to NE 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-M.Jones to NE 17 for 2 yards (39-C.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.40 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 65, worth -2.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 23, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model