Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 17 at the 80

New England Patriots 31 – Buffalo Bills 35

(5:19) 17-B.Baringer punts 51 yards to BUF 29, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.49 EP
69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 80, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model