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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 45

Buffalo Bills 21 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(11:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 10-K.Shakir to NE 8 for 37 yards (25-M.Jones). Penalty on NE-25-M.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.97 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 45, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model