Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 16 at the 80

New England Patriots 24 – Buffalo Bills 14

(9:29) 17-B.Baringer punts 62 yards to BUF 18, Center-47-J.Ashby. 10-K.Shakir ran ob at BUF 30 for 12 yards (15-M.Mapu).

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.01 EP
68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 80, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model