Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 89

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(:51) 11-J.Stout punts 44 yards to CIN 45, Center-46-N.Moore. 15-C.Jones to CIN 43 for -2 yards (24-M.Starks). BAL-40-T.Buchanan was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -3.11 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.89 EP
66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 89, worth -5.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model