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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 19 at the 40

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(3:02) 8-R.Rehkow punts 25 yards to BAL 15, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 83-L.Wester.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.63 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 40, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model