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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 27

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(2:08) (Shotgun) 34-S.Perine up the middle to BAL 27 for no gain (0-R.Smith; 98-T.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.52 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 27, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 37, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model