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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 48

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(4:08) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase pushed ob at BAL 36 for 12 yards (2-N.Wiggins).

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.28 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model