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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 78

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(13:57) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 30-C.Brown to CIN 24 for 2 yards (32-T.Simpson).

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.98 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 78, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 35, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model