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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 8

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 33-T.Loop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.74 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 8, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP