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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 32

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(11:55) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep middle to 88-M.Gesicki [41-D.Jones]. BAL-3-C.Awuzie was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.35 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 32, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 42, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model