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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 65

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(7:47) 8-R.Rehkow punts 44 yards to BAL 21, Center-46-W.Wagner, downed by CIN-46-W.Wagner.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.92 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 65, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 23, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP