4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 14 at the 65

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 – Atlanta Falcons 26

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to ATL 20, Center-86-E.Deckers. 83-D.Thompkins ran ob at ATL 30 for 10 yards (58-M.Watts).

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +0.55 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 65, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 23, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model