4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 50

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to ATL 13, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.40 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 50, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model