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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 31

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(2:08) 4-C.McLaughlin 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.50 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 31, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 41, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model