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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 44

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(12:43) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to ATL 6, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-19-K.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.99 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 44, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model